+18.5(-110)
SPREAD
-18.5(-110)
TOTAL · 55.5
O 55.5(-110)U 55.5(-110)
U 55.5(-110)+625
MONEYLINEUSC 88%
-700
| Schedule | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #99 | -0.09 | SOS Played | -0.07 | #94 |
| #11 | +0.23 | SOS Remaining | +0.08 | #57 |
| Offense | ||||
| #94 | -0.10 | Adj. EPA / Play | +0.47 | #2 |
| #87 | +0.03 | EPA / Play | +0.63 | #1 |
| #91 | 5.4 | Yards / Play | 9.9 | #1 |
| #72 | 40.8% | Success Rate | 59.4% | #2 |
| Defense · allowed | ||||
| #41 | -0.11 | Adj. EPA / Play | -0.14 | #32 |
| #20 | -0.06 | EPA / Play | -0.03 | #30 |
| #30 | 4.8 | Yards / Play | 5.8 | #70 |
| #22 | 35.3% | Success Rate | 36.7% | #35 |
| Success rate: Bill Connelly. Adjusted EPA: a port of sportsdataverse-py. EPA and plays: CollegeFootballData.com. Methods | ||||
 MSU Offense | vs |  USC Defense | ||
| #70 | +0.13 | EPA / Pass | -0.12 | #21 |
| #98 | -0.04 | EPA / Rush | +0.12 | #89 |
| #42 | 52.3% | Available Yards % | 40.9% | #47 |
| #7 | Own 37 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 27 | #34 |
| #96 | -0.03 | Early Downs EPA | -0.15 | #12 |
| T-#57 | 43.3% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 38.8% | T-#57 |
| #130 | 9.2 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.8 | #38 |
| MSU Defense | vs | USC Offense | ||
| #34 | -0.05 | EPA / Pass | +0.86 | #1 |
| #26 | -0.08 | EPA / Rush | +0.43 | #4 |
| #32 | 36.9% | Available Yards % | 73.5% | #4 |
| T-#83 | Own 30 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 26 | #105 |
| #37 | -0.07 | Early Downs EPA | +0.48 | #1 |
| #15 | 28.0% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 62.5% | #3 |
| #10 | 8.7 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.2 | #80 |
| Negative Plays · committedper game | ||||
| T-#127 | 4.0 | Sacks Taken | 1.0 | T-#23 |
| T-#42 | 0.5 | INTs Thrown | 0.0 | T-#1 |
| T-#106 | 1.0 | Fumbles Lost | 0.7 | T-#98 |
| T-#83 | 1.5 | Turnovers | 0.7 | T-#36 |
| T-#56 | 5.5 | Penalties | 7.3 | T-#98 |
| T-#64 | 47.5 | Penalty Yards | 80.3 | #125 |
| Negative Plays · forcedper game | ||||
| T-#57 | 2.0 | Sacks | 4.7 | #2 |
| T-#71 | 0.5 | INTs | 2.0 | T-#2 |
| T-#44 | 0.5 | Fumbles Recovered | 0.3 | T-#71 |
| T-#63 | 1.0 | Takeaways | 2.3 | T-#15 |
| T-#49 | 6.5 | Penalties Drawn | 4.0 | T-#109 |
| T-#99 | 40.0 | Penalty Yds Drawn | 40.3 | #98 |
| Record | ||||
| 0-0 | Last Year Record (2024) | 0-0 | ||
| T-#41 | 7-5 | Current Year ATS (2025) | 5-8 | T-#103 |
| Coaching | ||||
| Jonathan Smith | Head Coach | Lincoln Riley | ||
| T-#90 | 2 | Seasons at School | 5 | T-#36 |
| #94 | 43-50 | Career Record | 90-28 | #12 |
| Situation | ||||
| 7 days | Rest | 7 days | ||
| — | Travel | — | ||
| Aidan Chiles | QB | Jayden Maiava | ||
| #27 | +0.49 | EPA / Att | +1.02 | #1 |
| #38 | 51.9% | Success Rate | 62.3% | #3 |
| #60 | 1.53 | Explosiveness | 2.01 | #4 |
| #57 | 3.6% | Sack Rate | 1.4% | #19 |
| #35 | +0.50 | Rush EPA | +0.21 | #89 |
| Last 8 · EPA / Att | ||||
| Game Breakers | ||||
| 92.3thWR | Omari Kelly+42.0 | Playmaker · PPA | Makai Lemon+63.7 | #18WR |
| 83.0thWR | Nick Marsh+28.2 | Playmaker · PPA | Ja'Kobi Lane+54.4 | 97.0thWR |
| 86.7thDB | Malik Spencer+11.7 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Bishop Fitzgerald+26.4 | #22DB |
| 83.9thDB | Malcolm Bell+10.4 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Jahkeem Stewart+13.2 | 95.6thDL |
| Recruiting | ||||
| T-#33 | 0 | 5★ Players | 3 | T-#17 |
| T-#39 | 14 | 4★ Players | 36 | #18 |
| #31 | 57 | 3★ Players | 33 | T-#104 |
| Transfers | ||||
0 in · 0 out | OFF Transfers | 0 in · 0 out | ||
0 in · 0 out | DEF Transfers | 0 in · 0 out | ||
| — | OFF Returning | — | ||
| — | DEF Returning | — | ||