FINAL
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
-2.5(-110)
SPREAD
+3(-110)
TOTAL · 51.5
O 51.5(-110)U 52.5(-110)
U 52.5(-110)-145
MONEYLINEMOST 59%
+130
| Schedule | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #55 | +0.08 | SOS Played | -0.17 | #133 |
| #123 | -0.15 | SOS Remaining | -0.22 | #135 |
| Offense | ||||
| #91 | -0.09 | Adj. EPA / Play | -0.21 | #125 |
| #96 | +0.05 | EPA / Play | -0.00 | #113 |
| #49 | 6.2 | Yards / Play | 5.3 | #100 |
| #122 | 35.7% | Success Rate | 39.9% | #93 |
| Defense · allowed | ||||
| #115 | +0.08 | Adj. EPA / Play | +0.15 | #126 |
| #130 | +0.30 | EPA / Play | +0.21 | #102 |
| #131 | 7.2 | Yards / Play | 7.1 | #129 |
| #123 | 48.6% | Success Rate | 45.0% | #100 |
| Success rate: Bill Connelly. Adjusted EPA: a port of sportsdataverse-py. EPA and plays: CollegeFootballData.com. Methods | ||||
| MOST Offense | vs | MTSU Defense | ||
| #93 | +0.06 | EPA / Pass | +0.51 | #135 |
| #89 | +0.03 | EPA / Rush | +0.02 | #44 |
| #88 | 41.5% | Available Yards % | 49.1% | #80 |
| #64 | Own 29 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 29 | #63 |
| #54 | +0.08 | Early Downs EPA | +0.14 | #101 |
| #135 | 25.0% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 35.6% | #26 |
| #129 | 8.6 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.4 | #51 |
| MOST Defense | vs | MTSU Offense | ||
| #105 | +0.31 | EPA / Pass | -0.01 | #107 |
| #130 | +0.29 | EPA / Rush | +0.01 | #97 |
| #103 | 52.7% | Available Yards % | 41.5% | #89 |
| #71 | Own 29 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 25 | #126 |
| #134 | +0.30 | Early Downs EPA | -0.00 | #99 |
| #42 | 38.0% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 35.8% | #110 |
| #70 | 7.1 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.8 | #113 |
| Negative Plays · committedper game | ||||
| #136 | 4.3 | Sacks Taken | 3.3 | T-#119 |
| T-#128 | 1.5 | INTs Thrown | 1.0 | T-#89 |
| T-#26 | 0.3 | Fumbles Lost | 0.3 | T-#26 |
| T-#109 | 1.8 | Turnovers | 1.3 | T-#71 |
| T-#99 | 7.3 | Penalties | 7.3 | T-#99 |
| #120 | 73.8 | Penalty Yards | 60.3 | #91 |
| Negative Plays · forcedper game | ||||
| T-#91 | 1.5 | Sacks | 1.5 | T-#91 |
| T-#85 | 0.5 | INTs | 0.8 | T-#60 |
| T-#48 | 0.5 | Fumbles Recovered | 0.5 | T-#48 |
| T-#76 | 1.0 | Takeaways | 1.3 | T-#58 |
| T-#16 | 7.8 | Penalties Drawn | 4.3 | T-#122 |
| #7 | 77.3 | Penalty Yds Drawn | 39.3 | #113 |
| Record | ||||
| T-#50 | 7-6 | Current Year ATS (2025) | 6-6 | T-#62 |
| Coaching | ||||
| Nick Petrino | Head Coach | Derek Mason | ||
| T-#125 | 1 | Seasons at School | 3 | T-#64 |
| T-#139 | 0-1 | Career Record | 33-73 | #127 |
| Situation | ||||
| 11 days | Rest | 11 days | ||
| — | Travel | — | ||
| Deuce Bailey | QB | Nick Vattiato | ||
| #133 | -0.30 | EPA / Att | +0.10 | #108 |
| #133 | 29.4% | Success Rate | 40.5% | #110 |
| #105 | 1.36 | Explosiveness | 1.35 | #107 |
| #1 | 0.0% | Sack Rate | 6.5% | #104 |
| #5 | +0.70 | Rush EPA | +0.08 | #109 |
| Last 8 · EPA / Att | ||||
| Game Breakers | ||||
| 88.5thWR | Jmariyae Robinson+34.2 | Playmaker · PPA | Cam'ron Lacy+26.9 | 82.0thWR |
| 87.5thWR | Tristian Gardner+33.1 | Playmaker · PPA | Myles Butler+24.7 | 80.5thWR |
| 95.1thDB | Jordan Dunbar+17.7 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Damonte Smith+18.1 | 98.4thDL |
| 91.2thLB | Kanye Young+13.3 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Juwon Gaston+16.6 | 94.4thDB |
| Recruiting | ||||
| T-#33 | 0 | 5★ Players | 0 | T-#33 |
| T-#90 | 3 | 4★ Players | 2 | T-#102 |
| #126 | 23 | 3★ Players | 43 | T-#82 |
| Transfers | ||||
0 in · 0 out | OFF Transfers | 0 in · 0 out | ||
0 in · 0 out | DEF Transfers | 0 in · 0 out | ||
| — | OFF Returning | — | ||
| — | DEF Returning | — | ||