+40(-110)
SPREAD
-39.5(-110)
TOTAL · 48
O 48(-110)U 48.5(-110)
U 48.5(-110)—
MONEYLINE
—
| Schedule | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #52 | +0.07 | SOS Played | -0.10 | #91 |
| #128 | -0.20 | SOS Remaining | +0.03 | #48 |
| Offense | ||||
| #65 | -0.00 | Adj. EPA / Play | +0.15 | #22 |
| #102 | -0.03 | EPA / Play | +0.32 | #20 |
| #101 | 4.8 | Yards / Play | 6.6 | #34 |
| #132 | 24.6% | Success Rate | 46.7% | #39 |
| Defense · allowed | ||||
| #99 | +0.08 | Adj. EPA / Play | -0.22 | #11 |
| #68 | +0.12 | EPA / Play | -0.14 | #13 |
| #108 | 6.8 | Yards / Play | 4.2 | #13 |
| #49 | 38.8% | Success Rate | 35.2% | #29 |
| Success rate: Bill Connelly. Adjusted EPA: a port of sportsdataverse-py. EPA and plays: CollegeFootballData.com. Methods | ||||
| BUF Offense | vs | PSU Defense | ||
| #92 | +0.04 | EPA / Pass | -0.21 | #16 |
| #121 | -0.16 | EPA / Rush | -0.07 | #38 |
| #113 | 30.1% | Available Yards % | 25.9% | #11 |
| #100 | Own 26 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 21 | #7 |
| #120 | -0.20 | Early Downs EPA | -0.17 | #16 |
| T-#114 | 27.3% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 29.6% | #26 |
| #132 | 9.3 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.0 | T-#67 |
| BUF Defense | vs | PSU Offense | ||
| #107 | +0.41 | EPA / Pass | +0.73 | #8 |
| #21 | -0.15 | EPA / Rush | +0.04 | #71 |
| #107 | 56.4% | Available Yards % | 70.5% | #9 |
| #115 | Own 35 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 37 | #14 |
| #44 | -0.00 | Early Downs EPA | +0.21 | #33 |
| #87 | 45.0% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 51.6% | #32 |
| #88 | 6.6 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 6.0 | T-#24 |
| Negative Plays · committedper game | ||||
| T-#103 | 3.0 | Sacks Taken | 1.0 | T-#23 |
| T-#76 | 1.0 | INTs Thrown | 0.0 | T-#1 |
| T-#124 | 2.0 | Fumbles Lost | 0.0 | T-#1 |
| T-#121 | 3.0 | Turnovers | 0.0 | T-#1 |
| T-#30 | 5.0 | Penalties | 4.0 | T-#16 |
| #14 | 29.0 | Penalty Yards | 32.5 | T-#19 |
| Negative Plays · forcedper game | ||||
| T-#121 | 0.0 | Sacks | 1.5 | T-#70 |
| T-#86 | 0.0 | INTs | 1.0 | T-#20 |
| T-#12 | 1.0 | Fumbles Recovered | 0.5 | T-#52 |
| T-#53 | 1.0 | Takeaways | 1.5 | T-#41 |
| T-#94 | 5.0 | Penalties Drawn | 4.5 | T-#109 |
| T-#96 | 41.0 | Penalty Yds Drawn | 52.5 | T-#68 |
| Record | ||||
| T-#83 | 5-7 | Last Year Record (2025) | 7-6 | T-#60 |
| T-#106 | 2-4 | Current Year ATS (2026) | 2-4 | T-#106 |
| Coaching | ||||
| Pete Lembo | Head Coach | Matt Campbell | ||
| T-#55 | 3 | Seasons at School | 1 | T-#109 |
| #71 | 47-40 | Career Record | 107-70 | #48 |
| Situation | ||||
| 7 days | Rest | 7 days | ||
| 158 mi | Travel | Home | ||
| Jason Wright | QB | Rocco Becht | ||
| #72 | +0.27 | EPA / Att | +0.96 | #4 |
| #125 | 33.3% | Success Rate | 62.2% | #11 |
| #1 | 2.31 | Explosiveness | 1.92 | #14 |
| #47 | 3.6% | Sack Rate | 4.3% | #57 |
| #89 | +0.00 | Rush EPA | -0.32 | #116 |
| Last 8 · EPA / Att | ||||
| Game Breakers | ||||
| 95.4thWR | Chance Morrow+28.8 | Playmaker · PPA | Koby Howard+27.0 | 94.7thWR |
| 78.5thRB | Nino Hill+8.4 | Playmaker · PPA | Chase Sowell+26.1 | 94.1thWR |
| 95.2thLB | SaVeon Brown+7.9 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Tony Rojas+19.6 | #1LB |
| 91.9thDL | Logan Goodwin+5.1 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Josiah Zayas+6.8 | 93.0thDB |
| Recruiting | ||||
| T-#37 | 0 | 5★ Players | 0 | T-#37 |
| T-#129 | 0 | 4★ Players | 29 | T-#20 |
| T-#55 | 60 | 3★ Players | 47 | T-#102 |
| Transfers | ||||
5 in · 4 out | OFF Transfers | 19 in · 21 out | ||
10 in · 10 out | DEF Transfers | 18 in · 24 out | ||
| 7% | OFF Returning | 7% | ||
| 24% | DEF Returning | 28% | ||