Lines not yet posted by tracked sportsbooks.
| Schedule | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #54 | +0.03 | SOS Played | +0.12 | #22 |
| #14 | +0.20 | SOS Remaining | +0.08 | #47 |
| Offense | ||||
| #20 | +0.15 | Adj. EPA / Play | +0.21 | #13 |
| #64 | +0.14 | EPA / Play | +0.30 | #14 |
| #76 | 5.8 | Yards / Play | 6.5 | #31 |
| #106 | 38.4% | Success Rate | 51.3% | #7 |
| Defense · allowed | ||||
| #36 | -0.10 | Adj. EPA / Play | -0.07 | #45 |
| #10 | -0.07 | EPA / Play | +0.15 | #81 |
| #8 | 4.7 | Yards / Play | 5.9 | #74 |
| #28 | 37.7% | Success Rate | 42.9% | T-#78 |
| Success rate: Bill Connelly. Adjusted EPA: a port of sportsdataverse-py. EPA and plays: CollegeFootballData.com. Methods | ||||
 BAY Offense | vs |  HOU Defense | ||
| #40 | +0.25 | EPA / Pass | +0.23 | #95 |
| #101 | +0.03 | EPA / Rush | +0.02 | #36 |
| #52 | 49.2% | Available Yards % | 43.8% | #55 |
| #10 | Own 33 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 23 | #2 |
| #63 | +0.08 | Early Downs EPA | +0.08 | #73 |
| #59 | 42.9% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 42.3% | #84 |
| #98 | 7.5 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.4 | #42 |
| BAY Defense | vs | HOU Offense | ||
| #22 | -0.02 | EPA / Pass | +0.43 | #10 |
| #5 | -0.14 | EPA / Rush | +0.19 | #37 |
| #43 | 42.1% | Available Yards % | 64.5% | #3 |
| #31 | Own 26 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 32 | T-#19 |
| #31 | -0.01 | Early Downs EPA | +0.19 | #29 |
| #28 | 34.2% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 59.5% | #1 |
| #32 | 7.7 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 5.4 | #6 |
| Negative Plays · committedper game | ||||
| T-#60 | 1.8 | Sacks Taken | 1.0 | T-#18 |
| T-#41 | 0.5 | INTs Thrown | 0.2 | T-#11 |
| T-#99 | 0.8 | Fumbles Lost | 0.6 | T-#79 |
| T-#73 | 1.3 | Turnovers | 0.8 | T-#32 |
| T-#77 | 7.0 | Penalties | 7.2 | T-#92 |
| T-#90 | 62.8 | Penalty Yards | 60.8 | T-#81 |
| Negative Plays · forcedper game | ||||
| T-#5 | 3.5 | Sacks | 2.2 | T-#46 |
| T-#11 | 1.3 | INTs | 0.8 | T-#40 |
| T-#7 | 1.0 | Fumbles Recovered | 0.2 | T-#112 |
| T-#7 | 2.3 | Takeaways | 1.0 | T-#74 |
| T-#82 | 6.3 | Penalties Drawn | 6.4 | T-#78 |
| #70 | 56.3 | Penalty Yds Drawn | 52.6 | T-#85 |
| Record | ||||
| T-#13 | 4-1 | Current Year ATS (2026) | 3-3 | T-#53 |
| Coaching | ||||
| Dave Aranda | Head Coach | Willie Fritz | ||
| T-#15 | 7 | Seasons at School | 3 | T-#55 |
| T-#86 | 36-37 | Career Record | 86-65 | #65 |
| Situation | ||||
| 7 days | Rest | 7 days | ||
| 165 mi | Travel | Home | ||
| D.J. Lagway | QB | Conner Weigman | ||
| #67 | +0.28 | EPA / Att | +0.52 | #15 |
| #115 | 39.1% | Success Rate | 57.0% | #8 |
| #12 | 1.81 | Explosiveness | 1.51 | #74 |
| #24 | 2.9% | Sack Rate | 2.9% | #28 |
| #130 | -0.38 | Rush EPA | +0.52 | #17 |
| Last 8 · EPA / Att | ||||
| Game Breakers | ||||
| #17WR | Gavin Freeman+35.9 | Playmaker · PPA | Amare Thomas+26.3 | 94.2thWR |
| 89.3thWR | Louis Brown IV+19.4 | Playmaker · PPA | Patrick Overmyer+24.1 | #7TE |
| 98.2thDB | Devon Jordan+11.3 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Jordan Allen+13.7 | T-#22DB |
| 96.2thDL | Ryan Davis+7.3 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Javion White+10.6 | 97.5thDB |
| Recruiting | ||||
| T-#23 | 1 | 5★ Players | 2 | T-#18 |
| T-#38 | 17 | 4★ Players | 8 | T-#65 |
| T-#22 | 67 | 3★ Players | 63 | T-#40 |
| Transfers | ||||
12 in · 8 out | OFF Transfers | 10 in · 10 out | ||
18 in · 17 out | DEF Transfers | 6 in · 6 out | ||
| 61% | OFF Returning | 82% | ||
| 62% | DEF Returning | 38% | ||