Lines not yet posted by tracked sportsbooks.
| Schedule | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #54 | +0.03 | SOS Played | +0.15 | #16 |
| #14 | +0.20 | SOS Remaining | +0.12 | #38 |
| Offense | ||||
| #20 | +0.15 | Adj. EPA / Play | +0.02 | #54 |
| #64 | +0.14 | EPA / Play | +0.05 | #96 |
| #76 | 5.8 | Yards / Play | 5.4 | #101 |
| #106 | 38.4% | Success Rate | 37.7% | #115 |
| Defense · allowed | ||||
| #36 | -0.10 | Adj. EPA / Play | -0.11 | #34 |
| #10 | -0.07 | EPA / Play | +0.06 | #43 |
| #8 | 4.7 | Yards / Play | 5.7 | #64 |
| #28 | 37.7% | Success Rate | 42.8% | #77 |
| Success rate: Bill Connelly. Adjusted EPA: a port of sportsdataverse-py. EPA and plays: CollegeFootballData.com. Methods | ||||
 BAY Offense | vs |  UCF Defense | ||
| #40 | +0.25 | EPA / Pass | +0.10 | #64 |
| #101 | +0.03 | EPA / Rush | +0.00 | #29 |
| #52 | 49.2% | Available Yards % | 49.3% | #91 |
| #10 | Own 33 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 33 | #121 |
| #63 | +0.08 | Early Downs EPA | -0.02 | #29 |
| #59 | 42.9% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 44.8% | #100 |
| #98 | 7.5 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 6.8 | #78 |
| BAY Defense | vs | UCF Offense | ||
| #22 | -0.02 | EPA / Pass | +0.14 | #70 |
| #5 | -0.14 | EPA / Rush | -0.04 | #116 |
| #43 | 42.1% | Available Yards % | 39.0% | #104 |
| #31 | Own 26 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 30 | #60 |
| #31 | -0.01 | Early Downs EPA | +0.06 | #75 |
| #28 | 34.2% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 35.1% | T-#105 |
| #32 | 7.7 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.1 | #77 |
| Negative Plays · committedper game | ||||
| T-#60 | 1.8 | Sacks Taken | 1.6 | T-#50 |
| T-#41 | 0.5 | INTs Thrown | 0.6 | T-#58 |
| T-#99 | 0.8 | Fumbles Lost | 0.6 | T-#79 |
| T-#73 | 1.3 | Turnovers | 1.2 | T-#61 |
| T-#77 | 7.0 | Penalties | 6.6 | T-#64 |
| T-#90 | 62.8 | Penalty Yards | 49.8 | #48 |
| Negative Plays · forcedper game | ||||
| T-#5 | 3.5 | Sacks | 1.8 | T-#77 |
| T-#11 | 1.3 | INTs | 1.0 | T-#26 |
| T-#7 | 1.0 | Fumbles Recovered | 0.8 | T-#20 |
| T-#7 | 2.3 | Takeaways | 1.8 | T-#13 |
| T-#82 | 6.3 | Penalties Drawn | 7.2 | T-#48 |
| #70 | 56.3 | Penalty Yds Drawn | 61.0 | T-#51 |
| Record | ||||
| T-#13 | 4-1 | Current Year ATS (2026) | 4-2 | T-#22 |
| Coaching | ||||
| Dave Aranda | Head Coach | Scott Frost | ||
| T-#15 | 7 | Seasons at School | 2 | T-#78 |
| T-#86 | 36-37 | Career Record | 40-45 | #94 |
| Situation | ||||
| 7 days | Rest | 7 days | ||
| 973 mi | Travel | Home | ||
| D.J. Lagway | QB | Keyone Jenkins | ||
| #67 | +0.28 | EPA / Att | +0.30 | #61 |
| #115 | 39.1% | Success Rate | 42.4% | #94 |
| #12 | 1.81 | Explosiveness | 1.64 | #33 |
| #24 | 2.9% | Sack Rate | 4.8% | #60 |
| #130 | -0.38 | Rush EPA | -0.13 | #120 |
| Last 8 · EPA / Att | ||||
| Game Breakers | ||||
| #17WR | Gavin Freeman+35.9 | Playmaker · PPA | Josh Derry+22.3 | 92.8thWR |
| 89.3thWR | Louis Brown IV+19.4 | Playmaker · PPA | Caden Piening+13.1 | 93.1thTE |
| 98.2thDB | Devon Jordan+11.3 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Demari Henderson+12.6 | 98.6thDB |
| 96.2thDL | Ryan Davis+7.3 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Tackett Curtis+8.2 | 95.5thLB |
| Recruiting | ||||
| T-#23 | 1 | 5★ Players | 0 | T-#37 |
| T-#38 | 17 | 4★ Players | 11 | T-#48 |
| T-#22 | 67 | 3★ Players | 45 | T-#104 |
| Transfers | ||||
12 in · 8 out | OFF Transfers | 13 in · 14 out | ||
18 in · 17 out | DEF Transfers | 16 in · 20 out | ||
| 61% | OFF Returning | 26% | ||
| 62% | DEF Returning | 52% | ||