+29(-110)
SPREAD
-28.5(-110)
TOTAL · 51.5
O 51.5(-110)U 51.5(-110)
U 51.5(-110)+1800
MONEYLINEND 98%
-5000
| Schedule | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #105 | -0.15 | SOS Played | -0.44 | #136 |
| #45 | +0.04 | SOS Remaining | -0.05 | #84 |
| Offense | ||||
| #32 | +0.10 | Adj. EPA / Play | +0.09 | #38 |
| #52 | +0.17 | EPA / Play | +0.37 | #13 |
| #72 | 5.7 | Yards / Play | 6.6 | #38 |
| #41 | 46.4% | Success Rate | 50.8% | #19 |
| Defense · allowed | ||||
| #113 | +0.13 | Adj. EPA / Play | -0.06 | #54 |
| #56 | +0.06 | EPA / Play | -0.19 | #8 |
| T-#49 | 5.3 | Yards / Play | 4.6 | #26 |
| #32 | 35.5% | Success Rate | 29.9% | #12 |
| Success rate: Bill Connelly. Adjusted EPA: a port of sportsdataverse-py. EPA and plays: CollegeFootballData.com. Methods | ||||
| MSU Offense | vs | ND Defense | ||
| #44 | +0.29 | EPA / Pass | +0.10 | #58 |
| #65 | +0.09 | EPA / Rush | -0.40 | #4 |
| #11 | 68.1% | Available Yards % | 26.6% | #13 |
| #10 | Own 37 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 28 | #60 |
| #63 | +0.08 | Early Downs EPA | -0.35 | #6 |
| #34 | 51.3% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 35.7% | T-#46 |
| #16 | 5.6 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.4 | T-#48 |
| MSU Defense | vs | ND Offense | ||
| #26 | -0.08 | EPA / Pass | +0.56 | #16 |
| #109 | +0.23 | EPA / Rush | +0.19 | #34 |
| #33 | 35.5% | Available Yards % | 59.8% | #23 |
| #38 | Own 25 | Starting Field Pos. | Own 31 | #46 |
| #81 | +0.13 | Early Downs EPA | +0.37 | #9 |
| #36 | 31.8% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 50.0% | T-#35 |
| #21 | 8.1 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 5.8 | #18 |
| Negative Plays · committedper game | ||||
| T-#93 | 2.5 | Sacks Taken | 0.5 | T-#15 |
| T-#1 | 0.0 | INTs Thrown | 0.0 | T-#1 |
| T-#66 | 0.5 | Fumbles Lost | 0.0 | T-#1 |
| T-#33 | 0.5 | Turnovers | 0.0 | T-#1 |
| T-#16 | 4.0 | Penalties | 3.0 | T-#5 |
| T-#34 | 37.5 | Penalty Yards | 30.5 | #16 |
| Negative Plays · forcedper game | ||||
| T-#21 | 3.0 | Sacks | 1.5 | T-#70 |
| T-#61 | 0.5 | INTs | 0.5 | T-#61 |
| T-#52 | 0.5 | Fumbles Recovered | 2.5 | T-#2 |
| T-#53 | 1.0 | Takeaways | 3.0 | T-#6 |
| T-#94 | 5.0 | Penalties Drawn | 5.0 | T-#94 |
| #123 | 25.5 | Penalty Yds Drawn | 40.0 | T-#99 |
| Record | ||||
| T-#98 | 4-8 | Last Year Record (2025) | 10-2 | #13 |
| T-#43 | 3-2 | Current Year ATS (2026) | 4-2 | T-#22 |
| Coaching | ||||
| Pat Fitzgerald | Head Coach | Marcus Freeman | ||
| T-#109 | 1 | Seasons at School | 6 | T-#21 |
| #79 | 110-101 | Career Record | 43-12 | T-#7 |
| Situation | ||||
| 7 days | Rest | 7 days | ||
| 114 mi | Travel | Home | ||
| Alessio Milivojevic | QB | C.J. Carr | ||
| #38 | +0.46 | EPA / Att | +0.65 | #19 |
| #45 | 50.0% | Success Rate | 61.2% | #12 |
| #63 | 1.57 | Explosiveness | 1.35 | #96 |
| #112 | 8.5% | Sack Rate | 2.0% | #26 |
| #52 | +0.32 | Rush EPA | -0.08 | #102 |
| Last 8 · EPA / Att | ||||
| Game Breakers | ||||
| 87.3thWR | Rodney Bullard Jr.+18.0 | Playmaker · PPA | Jordan Faison+31.5 | 96.9thWR |
| 91.2thTE | Jayden Savoury+11.3 | Playmaker · PPA | Micah Gilbert+29.3 | 95.8thWR |
| 98.5thDL | Kenny Soares Jr.+9.0 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Luke Talich+13.4 | #24DB |
| 95.6thDL | Eli Coenen+6.8 | Defender · Havoc EPA | Boubacar Traore+11.6 | #10DL |
| Recruiting | ||||
| T-#37 | 0 | 5★ Players | 9 | #5 |
| T-#48 | 11 | 4★ Players | 59 | #3 |
| T-#65 | 58 | 3★ Players | 29 | T-#125 |
| Transfers | ||||
12 in · 21 out | OFF Transfers | 2 in · 5 out | ||
13 in · 18 out | DEF Transfers | 5 in · 12 out | ||
| 17% | OFF Returning | 52% | ||
| 20% | DEF Returning | 78% | ||